Simple Regime Switching and Dip Buying with Leveraged Nasdaq (2x)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
Risk-on/risk-off plan: QQQ in uptrends; XLP when weak; but buy deep dips with 2x Nasdaq (QLD) when SPY looks oversold (RSI<30). Signals come from SPY’s 200‑day trend and 10‑day RSI; trades infrequently.
Reads the market using SPY (S&P 500).
- If SPY is above its 200‑day average (long‑term uptrend), own QQQ (Nasdaq‑100, big US tech/growth).
- If below: if SPY’s 10‑day RSI<30 (RSI gauges how extreme recent moves are; <30 = very oversold), buy QLD (2x Nasdaq) to play a snap‑back; otherwise hold XLP (consumer‑staples, “everyday essentials”). Trades only when signals flip.
Out-of-sample, this strategy shows higher risk-adjusted upside vs the S&P 500: 34.3% annualized return vs 23.1%; Calmar ~1.52; Sharpe ~1.39. Drawdowns are higher (~22.6%), but it captures Nasdaq leadership in uptrends and opportunistic dips.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.98 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 718.32% | 11.21% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.64 | |
| 7,998.81% | 24.86% | 12.85% | 11.97% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$809,881.47Regulatory Fees
$932.97
Total Slippage
$5,425.98
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 25, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, regime switching, dip buying, rsi, 200-day moving average, nasdaq focus, leveraged etf, defensive rotation