Simple Regime Switching and Dip Buying with 2X SPY V0.3 | 20.7% AR | 22.3% DD | 02/2007-09/2022
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rules-based switch: in uptrends, hold leveraged US stocks plus Treasuries and Gold; in downtrends, either buy sharp dips or rotate to defensive assets. Uses a 200‑day trend filter, a 10‑day RSI dip trigger, and threshold rebalancing.
Step 1: Check SPY’s trend. If SPY is above its 200‑day average, it’s “risk‑on.” If below, it’s “risk‑off.”
Risk‑on: Hold a mix of 2x S&P 500 (SSO), 2x Nasdaq‑100 (QLD), long Treasuries (TLT), and Gold (GLD).
Risk‑off: If SPY is very oversold (10‑day RSI < 27), buy the dip with SSO; otherwise hold XLP, GLD, and UUP. Rebalance only when weights drift ~10–15%.
Out-of-sample edge: 35.2% annualized return vs 20.6% S&P, Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.23, max drawdown 14.6% vs 18.8%, Calmar 2.41. A rules-based regime-switching system that leverages uptrends and hedges downturns for better risk-adjusted growth.
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3M
6M
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3Y
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Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.71 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 553.35% | 10.36% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.6 | |
| 4,822.37% | 22.7% | -0.76% | 3.68% | 1.13 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$492,236.54Regulatory Fees
$439.39
Total Slippage
$2,361.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 19, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, dip buying, leveraged etfs, tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type