Simple Regime Switching and Dip Buying with 2X SPY V0.3 | 20.7% AR | 22.3% DD | 02/2007-09/2022
Today’s Change (Aug 7, 2026)
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About
A rules-based switch: in uptrends, hold leveraged US stocks plus Treasuries and Gold; in downtrends, either buy sharp dips or rotate to defensive assets. Uses a 200‑day trend filter, a 10‑day RSI dip trigger, and threshold rebalancing.
Step 1: Check SPY’s trend. If SPY is above its 200‑day average, it’s “risk‑on.” If below, it’s “risk‑off.”
Risk‑on: Hold a mix of 2x S&P 500 (SSO), 2x Nasdaq‑100 (QLD), long Treasuries (TLT), and Gold (GLD).
Risk‑off: If SPY is very oversold (10‑day RSI < 27), buy the dip with SSO; otherwise hold XLP, GLD, and UUP. Rebalance only when weights drift ~10–15%.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~32.5% annualized return with a higher Sharpe (~1.45) and cooler drawdowns (~14.6% vs 18.8%), plus Calmar ~2.23—backtested over 1,416 days. More robust, risk-efficient growth than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.72 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 652.53% | 10.94% | 2.3% | 5% | 0.63 | |
| 5,515.12% | 23.03% | -0.2% | 0.15% | 1.14 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$561,511.52Regulatory Fees
$411.18
Total Slippage
$2,797.12
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 19, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, dip buying, leveraged etfs, tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type