Regime-switching dip-buy/short Nasdaq strategy using SPY 200-day MA and 10-day RSI to rotate between QLD (2x Nasdaq) or QQQ, and defensive XLP with QID, backtested from 2006-07-13 with no routine rebalancing.

- Start with cash allocated evenly when signals trigger. - Use SPY as market proxy and compare its price to its 200-day moving average to gauge the long-term regime. - In the regime where momentum is favorable, check a short-term momentum signal: SPY’s 10-day RSI. - If SPY RSI is below 30 (meaning SPY recently rallied from a dip and is considered oversold), tilt into a leveraged Nasdaq bet using QLD (aiming for amplified Nasdaq gains). - If SPY RSI is not below 30, shift to a defensive setup: buy XLP (defensive sector) and hold QID (inverse Nasdaq exposure) to dampen Nasdaq risk. - Optional Nasdaq choice between QLD and QQQ exists in the logic, but the exact trigger isn’t fully explicit; the broad intent is leverage Nasdaq when odds look favorable, otherwise defend with XLP and QID. - Rebalancing occurs only as signals fire (no fixed schedule).

Regime-driven dip-buy/defense that leverages Nasdaq in uptrends and hedges when risk rises. Out-of-sample return ~33.7% p.a. vs SPY ~23.1%, with Calmar ~1.26 and Sharpe ~1.10, offering stronger upside with manageable risk vs the S&P 500.