Simple Regime Switching and Dip Buying and Shorting with Leveraged Nasdaq (2x)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Uses S&P 500 trend and an “oversold” gauge to switch between: long Nasdaq (QQQ/2x QLD), buying sharp dips (2x QLD), or going defensive/short (XLP + 2x inverse QID). Main exposure: big‑tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100, plus consumer staples in weak markets.
1) Check if the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average (a long‑term trend line). If yes, split between QQQ (Nasdaq‑100) and 2x QLD.
2) If below, check 10‑day RSI (a 0–100 speed/pressure gauge; <30 = very sold off). If RSI<30, buy 2x QLD for a bounce. Else, hold XLP (consumer staples) and 2x inverse QID (short Nasdaq).
Out-of-sample: 33.7% annualized return vs SPY’s 23.1%. A regime-switching, Nasdaq-focused strategy that buys dips and uses staples + inverse Nasdaq to reduce risk. Higher upside potential, though drawdowns can be larger in volatile markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.58 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 693.8% | 11.14% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.64 | |
| 28,456.67% | 33.43% | 0.91% | -3.78% | 1.12 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,855,667.45Regulatory Fees
$2,378.81
Total Slippage
$13,975.07
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 25, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, dip buying, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, long/short, nasdaq-100 focus, defensive rotation