Simple Regime Switching and Dip Buying and Shorting with Leveraged Nasdaq (2x)
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About
A market-timing strategy that uses SPY to judge conditions: bullish means buy Nasdaq hard, a sharp selloff means buy the dip, and weak markets mean shift to defensive stocks plus a bet against the Nasdaq.
This strategy first asks: “Is the overall U.S. stock market in a healthy uptrend?” It checks that by seeing whether SPY (a broad market fund) is above its 200-day average price.
If yes, it bets on the Nasdaq, splitting money between QQQ and the more aggressive 2x version, QLD.
If no, it checks whether the market has fallen very hard recently. If so, it buys that dip aggressively with QLD. Otherwise, it plays defense with XLP and a fund that profits when the Nasdaq falls (QID).
Out-of-sample return ~29.9% vs ~21% for the S&P. Regime-switching Nasdaq tilt—dip-buying and defensive hedges—delivers higher upside with solid risk-adjusted performance (Calmar ~1.12), despite ~27% max drawdown.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.6 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795.39% | 11.41% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.66 | |
| 33,936.85% | 33.3% | -13.15% | -7.58% | 1.11 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,403,684.92Regulatory Fees
$2,272.29
Total Slippage
$16,505.54
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 25, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, nasdaq, defensive rotation, inverse etfs