Simple Path Framework VTI _ Rev 1.0. May 8, 2023 (Shared)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Default: own the total U.S. stock market (VTI). If volatility spikes, shift to T‑bills (BIL). If the trend weakens, hide in consumer‑staples (XLP) or, rarely, take a short tech rebound via 3× Nasdaq (TQQQ). When cash yields are high, use gold (IAU)+TIPS (TIP).
Starts with VTI (Vanguard Total U.S. stock market).
- If volatility (VIXM) is overheated, hold BIL (T‑bills).
- If VTI’s short‑term trend is up, stay in VTI; if not and long‑Treasuries look weak, use XLP (consumer‑staples).
- If the S&P 500 is below its 200‑day, either take a short tech bounce via TQQQ (3× Nasdaq) if very oversold, else XLP.
- If cash earned ≈1.75%+ over the past year, use 70% gold (IAU)/30% TIP (inflation‑protected) instead of VTI.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.81 vs 1.43, annualized return 24.28% vs 22.84%, max drawdown 11.53% vs 18.76%. A rules-based, trend- and volatility-driven approach designed to beat the S&P with lower risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, volatility filter, defensive rotation, multi-asset, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks