Simple Moving Average
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Monthly, it checks if the S&P 500 is in an uptrend. If yes, buy the single best recent performer among big growth, big value, tech, or low‑vol ETFs. If not, buy the best of utilities, communications, or T‑bills. One ETF at 100%, then reassess.
Each month it checks the S&P 500 (via SPY). If the recent average price (~15 days, weighted to the latest days) is above the longer average (~60 days), it treats the market as healthy and buys 1 ETF: the best performer over ~35 days among MGK (big growth), MGV (big value), VGT (tech), SPLV (low‑vol stocks).
If the market isn’t healthy, it buys the 1 best over ~10 days among XLU (utilities), XLC (communications), or BIL (T‑bills). It puts 100% in that ETF for a month, then repeats.
Out-of-sample: ~16.3% annualized return, Calmar ~4.30, beta ~1.0. A transparent, monthly, rule-based rotation between trend leaders and safe assets delivers near-SPY upside with strong risk-adjusted performance.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.6 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178.2% | 14.25% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.78 | |
| 411.33% | 23.67% | -2.87% | 6.31% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$51,132.99Regulatory Fees
$40.18
Total Slippage
$268.87
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 1, 2025
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, momentum, etf rotation, moving-average filter, risk-on/risk-off, monthly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
MGK
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF
Stocks
MGV
Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF
Stocks
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
VGT
Vanguard Information Technology ETF
Stocks
XLC
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks