A layered, regime-based selector using leveraged, inverse, and hedging ETFs to adapt to bull, bear, or volatile markets; final tilt chooses TMF or TMV exposure based on recent risk signals.

A layered decision system that (1) watches market momentum signals across a family of ETFs, (2) categorizes regimes as bear, bull, or volatile/uncertain, (3) allocates exposure within each regime to a subset of instruments (bear hedges, bull bets, volatility hedges, commodities, and short-term bonds), and (4) uses a final TMF/TMV selector to tilt between Treasury bull or bear positions. It aims to keep risk more balanced (cash-equal across active layers) and avoids frequent rebalancing. Signals rely on short-window momentum (RSI-like metrics) and relative strength between assets, with threshold triggers to move between hedges and directional bets. The plan is non-rebalancing in the short term and uses a small tolerance (corridor width) before switching stance.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.39; annualized return 67.4% vs S&P ~22%; Calmar 1.32. A regime-aware, diversified strategy uses hedges and TMF/TMV tilts for higher growth with disciplined risk control—bear phases can bring larger drawdowns.