Simple Market Strategy / TMV/TMF Selector v2.0
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rules‑based, tactical switch using a volatility gauge (UVXY) to choose between a Treasury bet (TMF/TMV) and an equity bull/bear engine. Signals rely on RSI and recent drawdown; hedges in dollar/gold; occasional commodity holds. Heavy use of 3×/vol funds—high risk.
RSI=0–100 “heat” of recent moves (>70 hot/<30 cold). Max drawdown=worst recent drop.
- If UVXY (volatility ETF) is hot, pick TMF or TMV (3× long/short long‑term Treasuries) by recent damage; if both calm, own the 2 weakest (5‑day RSI) from SHY (short Treasuries), TQQQ/SPXL (3× stock bulls), and DBC/DBA (commodities).
- Else stocks: if SPY/QQQ very hot, buy UVXY; if SPY fell >6% in 10d, use SQQQ/SPXU (3× stock bears) or hedge with UUP (US dollar)+GLD (gold); otherwise buy the dip in TQQQ/SPXL/SHY.
Out-of-sample edge: ~67% annualized return vs ~22% for SPY, Sharpe ~1.39, Calmar ~1.32. Regime-switching with hedges targets bigger upside with disciplined risk; higher leverage means larger drawdowns in stress vs the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7 | 1.08 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 608.48% | 14.63% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.9 | |
| 4,745,935.72% | 111.92% | -2.97% | -3.89% | 1.8 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$474,603,572.31Regulatory Fees
$1,554,454.14
Total Slippage
$11,157,487.80
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical multi-asset, leveraged etfs, volatility regime filter, rsi/momentum, drawdown-based rotation, bonds, commodities, hedged, short-term
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type