Simple Market Strategy / TMV/TMF Selector v2.0
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A tactical, two‑regime strategy. In normal markets it mixes “buy‑the‑dip” and bear hedges; in high fear it flips to a rate bet (TMF vs TMV) or briefly diversifies into commodity/equity dips. Uses leveraged ETFs and short‑term signals.
It switches based on “fear” and recent moves. RSI = short‑term hot/cold score (0–100). Max drawdown = worst drop from a recent peak.
If fear (UVXY) isn’t overheated: buy UVXY when stocks look too hot; else after sharp 10‑day drops use bear tools or, in calmer times, buy the dip in bull funds. If fear is spiking: pick TMF/TMV (bet on rates) or briefly diversify into dipped commodities/equities.
ETFs used: SPY/QQQ=US stocks; TQQQ/SPXL=3x bull; SQQQ/SPXU=3x bear; UVXY=volatility; TMF/TMV=3x long/short long Treasuries; SHY/BSV=short bonds; UUP=dollar; GLD=gold; DBC/DBA=commodities/agri.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~67.4% annualized return vs ~22.1% for the S&P, with higher risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ~1.32, Sharpe ~1.39) and regime-switching across stocks, rates, and hedges. Drawdown can be higher (~51%) than SPY.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, mean‑reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility targeting, rates/treasuries, commodities hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks