[SIMPLE] KMLM switcher (single pops)| BT 4/13/22
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A fast, high‑risk switcher that buys volatility after overheated markets, buys 3x bull ETFs after selloffs, and otherwise toggles between risk‑on (tech/short‑vol) and a calmer mix of diversifiers using KMLM as a trend/risk compass.
It hunts for extremes, then switches based on the market’s “regime.”
- If many stock funds look very “hot” on a short‑term heat meter (RSI ≈ 80), it buys UVXY, a volatility fund that can spike when stocks cool off.
- If things look very “cold” (RSI < 30), it buys a 3x bull fund (tech, semis, or S&P) for a rebound.
- If neither, it compares tech (XLK) vs KMLM (a managed‑futures trend fund). If tech is stronger, it chooses levered tech or short‑vol; if KMLM is stronger, it rotates into calmer diversifiers (managed futures, long/short, USD, Treasuries).
Dynamic regime-switching strategy that targets extreme market regimes. Out-of-sample annualized return ~55% vs ~20% for the S&P, with strong risk-adjusted Calmar ~2.01—yet higher max drawdown (~27.5%). Potential for outsized gains with disciplined risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 9, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, mean-reversion, regime-switching, volatility, leveraged etfs, trend-following, managed futures, tech-heavy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 23 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FTLS
First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks