[SIMPLE] KMLM switcher (single pops)| BT 4/13/22
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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About
A fast, high‑risk switcher that buys volatility after overheated markets, buys 3x bull ETFs after selloffs, and otherwise toggles between risk‑on (tech/short‑vol) and a calmer mix of diversifiers using KMLM as a trend/risk compass.
It hunts for extremes, then switches based on the market’s “regime.”
- If many stock funds look very “hot” on a short‑term heat meter (RSI ≈ 80), it buys UVXY, a volatility fund that can spike when stocks cool off.
- If things look very “cold” (RSI < 30), it buys a 3x bull fund (tech, semis, or S&P) for a rebound.
- If neither, it compares tech (XLK) vs KMLM (a managed‑futures trend fund). If tech is stronger, it chooses levered tech or short‑vol; if KMLM is stronger, it rotates into calmer diversifiers (managed futures, long/short, USD, Treasuries).
Out-of-sample edge: approx 78% annualized return vs ~21% SPY; Sharpe ~1.24; Calmar ~2.83. Regime-switching, trend-following aims for bigger upside with strong risk-adjusted rewards, not a passive S&P bet.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | 1.36 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.47% | 14.93% | 1.36% | 13.5% | 0.89 | |
| 42,988.69% | 329.39% | 30.64% | 26.25% | 2.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,308,868.69Regulatory Fees
$10,147.82
Total Slippage
$87,232.14
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 9, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, mean-reversion, regime-switching, volatility, leveraged etfs, trend-following, managed futures, tech-heavy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 23 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
FTLS
First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks