A high-risk market-timing strategy that swings between aggressive tech-heavy stock bets, a volatility fund, the S&P 500, and Treasury bills based on signs of overheating, oversold conditions, and trend strength.

This strategy is a rulebook that tries to decide when to be aggressive and when to hide. It first checks if the market looks extremely overheated using RSI, which is a simple “too much buying vs. too much selling lately” gauge. If big U.S. stock indexes look too hot, it buys VIXY, a fund that tends to benefit when market fear jumps. If the market instead looks heavily sold off, it buys leveraged stock funds: TECL for tech or UPRO for the S&P 500. If neither extreme is happening, it checks trend strength. Strong broad-market momentum leads to SPY. Otherwise it uses a safety filter based on bonds (BND) versus an inverse S&P 500 fund (SH). If that filter is weak, it parks in BIL, a short-term Treasury fund. If the filter is healthy, it usually prefers TQQQ, a very aggressive fund tied to the Nasdaq, but only when price trends are supportive.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~38.6% annualized return vs SPY’s ~15.9%, backed by adaptive leverage and volatility hedges. Higher upside comes with larger drawdowns (~50% vs ~19%), so risk-tolerant sizing is essential.