Simons KMLM switcher V3
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A short‑term swing strategy: fade overheated markets into cash/volatility, buy tech/semis after washouts, and use KMLM’s strength as a regime switch—if KMLM leads, go defensive (inverse tech or Treasuries); otherwise stay in aggressive risk‑on plays.
It uses a short‑term “heat gauge” (RSI: 0–100; >70 = very hot, <30 = very cold) to time moves. After hot surges it hides in cash (BIL) or buys volatility (VIXY/VIXM). After big selloffs it buys aggressive tech/semis or short‑vol (SOXL/TECL/SVIX). It also compares KMLM (a managed‑futures trend fund in commodities/rates/currencies) to tech/semis/USD: when KMLM is stronger, it turns defensive into inverse tech (SQQQ/TECS) or Treasuries (TLT). Picks are equal‑weighted.
Out-of-sample, this strategy aims for far higher upside than the S&P: about 47.6% annual return vs 21.6%. Drawdowns are larger (~40%), but adaptive risk control (Calmar ~1.19) targets growth across cycles.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 | 0.76 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.88% | 13.44% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.81 | |
| 221,039.3% | 631.93% | 0.33% | -10.01% | 3.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$22,113,930.45Regulatory Fees
$77,920.39
Total Slippage
$547,868.79
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 6, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical timing, rsi-based, regime switching via kmlm, tech/semis focus, volatility etfs, leveraged etfs, treasuries, cash/t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x Shares
Stocks