Simons KMLM switcher (single pops)| BT 4/13/22 = A.R. 466% / D.D. 22% V2
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A high‑octane, event‑driven switcher: fade overheated markets with UVXY (long volatility), buy the dip in leveraged equity ETFs when they’re washed out, otherwise rotate based on Tech vs KMLM strength into risk‑on (TECL/SOXL/SVIX) or defensive (SQQQ/TLT).
It watches a short‑term “heat meter” (RSI, 0–100). Above ~80 = very hot; below ~30 = very cold.
• If many stock/sector funds look very hot, it buys UVXY (a fund that jumps when markets drop).
• If leveraged stock funds look very cold, it buys them for a bounce (TECL, SOXL, SPXL, LABU).
• If nothing is extreme, it compares Tech vs KMLM (a managed‑futures fund). If Tech is stronger, it buys the 2 weakest of TECL/SOXL/SVIX; otherwise it picks SQQQ or TLT, whichever is stronger.
Out-of-sample, this strategy shows superior risk-adjusted returns vs SPY: Sharpe ~1.83 vs ~1.00, annualized return ~225% vs ~17.5%, alpha ~1.19, and strong Calmar (~7.16). Higher upside with disciplined risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 22, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, momentum, mean‑reversion, volatility timing, leveraged etfs, managed futures, risk‑on/risk‑off, event‑driven
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABU
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks