Simons KMLM switcher (single pops)| BT 4/13/22 = A.R. 466% / D.D. 22% V2
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
Buys UVXY on overheat spikes, buys 3x equity ETFs on deep dips, and otherwise switches between risk‑on (leveraged tech/short‑vol) and risk‑off (inverse Nasdaq or Treasuries) using a tech‑vs‑KMLM trend check. Very volatile, event‑driven strategy.
It’s an all‑in tactical switcher.
1) If markets look “overheated” (RSI, a 0–100 speedometer of recent moves, is ~80+ on broad sectors), it buys UVXY, which jumps when fear/vol spikes.
2) If certain 3x stock funds look “oversold” (RSI ~25–30), it buys that fund for a bounce.
3) Otherwise, it compares tech (XLK) to KMLM (a trend‑following managed‑futures ETF). If tech looks stronger, it buys the two most beaten‑down of TECL/SOXL/SVIX. If futures look stronger (risk‑off), it holds whichever is stronger: SQQQ or TLT.
Note: uses very volatile funds; big swings are possible.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.87 vs SPY 1.0, alpha ~1.18%, Calmar ~7.41, and ~233% annualized OOS return vs ~17% for S&P. Higher upside with regime-switch risk control - note larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.26 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.43% | 14.2% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.84 | |
| 248,322.31% | 706.02% | -17.17% | -9.96% | 3.11 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$24,842,231.26Regulatory Fees
$73,259.93
Total Slippage
$515,896.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 22, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, leveraged etfs, volatility, mean reversion, trend following, regime switching, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABU
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SVIX
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks