Binary risk-on/off rule: if QQQ’s 2-year cumulative return > 42% (690 days), invest 100% in BIL (cash-like); otherwise invest 100% in TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq-100). No automatic rebalancing; single yes/no decision, 100% allocation to one instrument at a time.

Here’s what happens in plain language: - You start with 100% of your money ready to invest, but the system will put all of it into either BIL (cash-like) or TQQQ (a 3x leveraged version of QQQ). - It looks back about 690 trading days (roughly 2 years) at QQQ’s performance. If QQQ’s cumulative return over that period is more than 42%, the system chooses BIL and you end up holding the short-term Treasuries ETF. If QQQ’s 2-year gain is not that high, the system chooses TQQQ and you hold the 3x leveraged QQQ ETF. - There is no ongoing rebalancing: once the choice is made, you stay in that instrument under this framework unless something else triggers a change outside this rule. - The idea is a contrarian, binary approach: strong long-term performance of tech (QQQ) leads to safety (BIL); weaker performance leads to a high-risk, high-reward bet (TQQQ). - The underlying assets: - BIL = ultra-short cash-like fund (short-term U.S. government debt). - TQQQ = leveraged fund aiming for 3x the daily return of QQQ (very volatile). - QQQ is used only as the reference for the decision, not as an investment in this rule itself. - Caution: Leveraged ETFs like TQQQ can incur substantial losses quickly, especially if held across longer horizons. A long lookback-based trigger does not protect against drawdowns after the decision is made.

Out-of-sample edge: ~19.6%/yr vs SPY 19.2%, with a built-in switch to BIL when tech runs hot and a high-upside TQQQ bet otherwise. Lower beta (~0.56) and Calmar ~0.89 offer competitive risk-adjusted performance vs SPY.