Sideways Market Mod Below the SPY 200d SMA | FINAL | DereckN
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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About
Tech‑tilted. If SPY is weak, it buys sharp dips in big‑tech/semis with 3x ETFs; else toggles long/short Nasdaq via short‑term trend and a bonds‑vs‑bear gauge. If SPY is strong, ride TQQQ/SOXL unless overheated, then hedge with volatility or Treasuries.
Step 1: Regime. Is SPY (S&P 500) below its 200‑day average? If yes, be cautious.
Step 2: Dip buys. When a 0–100 “hot/cold” meter (RSI) says big tech or semis are washed out, buy 3x bulls (TQQQ/TECL/SOXL/UPRO).
Step 3: If no dip, choose long QQQ or short (PSQ/SQQQ) using the 20‑day trend and a fear check: bonds (TLT) strong vs bear ETF (SQQQ) = risk‑on.
If SPY is above its 200‑day, hold TQQQ+SOXL unless overheated, then shift to volatility (UVXY/VIXY) or long bonds (TMF).
Out-of-sample Sharpe ~1.09 vs SPY 0.96; Calmar ~1.28; OOS annualized return ~76.8% vs 16.5%. A tech/semis dip-buy strategy with regime hedging offers higher upside and better risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 (with higher drawdown risk).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.41 | 3.12 | 0.4 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.24% | 16.52% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.96 | |
| 145.44% | 76.82% | -1.63% | -35.57% | 1.09 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$24,543.78Regulatory Fees
$18.66
Total Slippage
$139.18
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend + mean‑reversion, leveraged/inverse etfs, tech/semis focus, risk‑on/risk‑off, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
FNGS
MicroSectors FANG+ ETNs due January 8, 2038
Stocks
FNGU
MicroSectors FANG+ 3x Leveraged ETNs due February 17, 2045
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks