Sideways Market Mod Below the SPY 200d SMA | FINAL | DereckN
Today’s Change (Apr 21, 2026)
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About
Tech‑tilted. If SPY is weak, it buys sharp dips in big‑tech/semis with 3x ETFs; else toggles long/short Nasdaq via short‑term trend and a bonds‑vs‑bear gauge. If SPY is strong, ride TQQQ/SOXL unless overheated, then hedge with volatility or Treasuries.
Step 1: Regime. Is SPY (S&P 500) below its 200‑day average? If yes, be cautious.
Step 2: Dip buys. When a 0–100 “hot/cold” meter (RSI) says big tech or semis are washed out, buy 3x bulls (TQQQ/TECL/SOXL/UPRO).
Step 3: If no dip, choose long QQQ or short (PSQ/SQQQ) using the 20‑day trend and a fear check: bonds (TLT) strong vs bear ETF (SQQQ) = risk‑on.
If SPY is above its 200‑day, hold TQQQ+SOXL unless overheated, then shift to volatility (UVXY/VIXY) or long bonds (TMF).
Out-of-sample edge: tech‑tilted, regime‑driven strategy with superior risk‑adjusted returns vs SPY (Sharpe ~1.10 vs 0.87; Calmar ~1.28) and ~77% annualized vs ~16%. Leveraged dip buys offer big upside; higher drawdown risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 2.76 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.8% | 15.18% | 9.27% | 4.88% | 0.84 | |
| 114.39% | 93.13% | 62.54% | 41.02% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$21,439.41Regulatory Fees
$13.97
Total Slippage
$86.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend + mean‑reversion, leveraged/inverse etfs, tech/semis focus, risk‑on/risk‑off, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
FNGS
MicroSectors FANG+ ETNs due January 8, 2038
Stocks
FNGU
MicroSectors FANG+ 3x Leveraged ETNs due February 17, 2045
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks