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Short-Term v Medium-Term: Volatility indicator
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About

Daily switches between cash‑like T‑Bills and a 3× S&P 500 fund based on whether short‑term market “fear” is heating up faster than medium‑term fear.
NutHow it works
Each day it watches two “fear gauge” funds: VIXY (near‑term) and VIXM (medium‑term). It compares their average change over the last 5 days. If near‑term fear is rising faster than medium‑term, it treats that as a storm warning and moves 100% to BIL (1–3 month T‑Bills). Otherwise it goes 100% into SPXL, a fund targeting 3× the S&P 500’s daily move. It rechecks daily. Note: SPXL is very volatile and can fall quickly.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample performance underperforms SPY on return and risk-adjusted metrics (13.13% vs 14.45%, Sharpe 0.55 vs 0.78) and has larger drawdowns. Use as a diversification sleeve alongside SPY, not a replacement.
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 25, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-timing, risk-on/risk-off, tactical allocation, leveraged equities, t-bills, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type