A Nasdaq-100 contrarian trade: only short QLD (via QID) when QLD is overbought (RSI > 79) and bonds look strong (TLT above its 200-day MA); otherwise park in cash (BIL). No regular rebalancing; 100% allocation to the chosen leg.

In plain language: the strategy watches QLD (a Nasdaq-100 levered ETF) for a quick strength pulse. If QLD looks very strong on a 10-day momentum gauge (RSI above 79), it then checks if the bond market is showing strength (TLT trading above its 200-day average). If both checks pass, the plan is to bet that Nasdaq-100 will fall by buying QID (which goes up when Nasdaq falls). If either check fails, it moves into cash instead by buying BIL (short-term Treasuries). There’s no automatic rebalancing unless the trigger conditions occur, and the weight on the chosen asset is 100% (no partial allocations). In short: only when QLD is stretched and bonds are in an uptrend do we short Nasdaq via QID; otherwise, park in cash via BIL. Tickers explained briefly: QLD = +2x Nasdaq-100; QID = -2x Nasdaq-100; QQQ tracks Nasdaq-100; TLT = long-dated U.S. Treasuries; BIL = very short-term Treasuries (cash proxy).

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~4.30 vs SPY ~1.02; drawdowns ~1.2% vs ~18.8%; Calmar ~438—strong risk-adjusted outperformance vs the S&P 500. 100% allocated to conditional Nasdaq-100 shorts with a cash safety net.