A short-bias, rule-based strategy that picks one of four tech/volatility ETFs (TECS, SQQQ, SOXS, UVXY) to short each period, using multiple lookback windows and three metrics (volatility, recent change, momentum) to decide. It tests two variants (with or without UVXY) and adds a Nasdaq momentum hedge (BIL) when QQQ looks overbought.

- Universe: The strategy looks at four specific short/leveraged assets tied to tech and volatility: TECS, SQQQ, SOXS, and UVXY. TECS, SQQQ, and SOXS are designed to go up when tech stocks fall or when the market gets stressed; UVXY tracks market volatility and tends to rise when volatility spikes. A separate risk hedge uses BIL (short-term Treasuries) when market momentum looks extreme. - Two variants: There are two short-group variants: SHORT GROUP (UVXY) and SHORT GROUP (NO UVXY). The first includes UVXY in the universe, the second excludes UVXY. - Selection method: For each variant, the strategy screens the four assets using three metrics across three lookback windows (5, 10, 15 days). For each window and metric, it ranks the assets and selects the top one asset. The metrics are: • Standard deviation of daily returns (a measure of how volatile the asset has been recently). • Cumulative return over the window (how much the asset has moved over that period). • Relative Strength Index (RSI) over the window (a momentum gauge telling whether an asset has been overbought or oversold). The top asset from each metric/window is selected (one asset per screening path). - Position sizing: The chosen assets are held with cash equal weighting within the group, effectively creating a small, balanced short exposure across the selected assets. If multiple paths converge on assets, they’re treated as part of the same short group; if only one asset is selected, that becomes the sole short. - Rebalancing: The rule says rebalance is none, so positions aren’t adjusted on a fixed schedule. Instead, the selection process runs to determine any changes? - Risk control: If Nasdaq momentum is very strong (QQQ RSI > 80), the system shifts to BIL (short-term Treasuries) as a hedge instead of maintaining the tech/volatility short positions. - Outcome: The goal is to profit from declines in tech-related or volatility-related ETFs, while preserving a hedge if broad market momentum becomes extreme. - Caveats: Leveraged/inverse ETFs can be highly volatile and compounding effects matter; results can diverge quickly from any simple intuition. The approach requires careful risk controls and understanding of how these instruments behave in different market regimes.

Offers strong downside protection and diversification: oos drawdown ~5% vs SPY ~19%, near-zero/negative beta, and solid risk-adjusted profile (Calmar ~1.49). Lower raw return than SPY but safer in volatile markets.