SG Live - 2 monthly combo v2 - 1x leveraged - 401k eligible
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A two‑sleeve, monthly plan. Half rotates between Bitcoin vs the U.S. dollar (or a single oversold diversifier). The other half toggles SPY ↔ TLT ↔ a defensive basket using a junk‑bond “canary,” with 40% of that half always in a safety mix.
- Split the portfolio 50/50 into two sleeves. Rebalance monthly.
- Sleeve A (50%): If broad bonds have risen lately, buy whichever is stronger: Bitcoin (GBTC) or the U.S. dollar (USDU). If bonds have not, buy one “most oversold” pick from a list (gold, tech, anti‑beta, USD, short Treasuries‑TIPS, a volatility premium fund, or a rates hedge).
- Sleeve B (50%): 60% uses a “canary” test: if junk bonds beat cash over the last month, hold the S&P 500 (SPY); if not, hold long Treasuries (TLT) if they’ve been rising, otherwise hold a defensive mix (gold, consumer staples, short Treasuries, USD). The other 40% always stays in a defensive mix (gold, short Treasuries, USD).
Out-of-sample edge: ~24% annualized return, Sharpe ~1.28, Calmar ~2.05, max drawdown ~11.7%, with beta ~0.35—clear, steadier, higher risk-adjusted growth vs SPY's ~18% return and ~18.8% drawdown.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.06% | 12.17% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.75 | |
| 335.14% | 36.5% | 1.01% | 1.74% | 1.68 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$43,513.94Regulatory Fees
$20.68
Total Slippage
$127.23
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 6, 2024
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, momentum and mean-reversion, crypto & usd rotation, defensive hedges, monthly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 16 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
JNK
State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
PFIX
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks