A dynamic, cycle-aware semiconductor strategy that rotates among SMH, SOXL, SOXS and volatility hedges based on momentum signals, with layered risk controls and cash cushions. It aims to ride semiconductor cycles while limiting drawdowns.

- What it tries to do: it seeks to ride cycles in the semiconductor sector (the group of chipmakers and related equipment) while protecting the downside with volatility hedges and safer assets. - What it buys: primarily SMH for broad semis exposure, plus leveraged bets SOXL (3x bull) and SOXS (3x bear) depending on signals. It also uses hedges like VIXM and UVXY for volatility, and UUP/SHY to diversify risk (dollar and short-term bonds). - How it decides: it runs a long chain of rules that check recent performance and momentum. It looks at short-term momentum (for example, a 5-day window) and medium-term momentum (10–40 days) using a momentum metric called RSI (a measure of price strength). Assets are ranked by this momentum signal and the top or bottom one(s) are chosen to hold. - How the portfolio is built: the strategy uses groups labeled High Volatility, Medium Volatility, Low Volatility and a Momentum group. Each group has dedicated assets and weights. The overall approach starts with a cash-equal base across the chosen assets, then assigns weights to the selected assets (for instance, 70% to SOXL, 30% to SMH, or other splits). There are also hedging legs that kick in when signals show stress. - When it shifts: if the short-term momentum is weak or if a volatility spike appears, the model moves more toward hedges and cash, reducing risk; if momentum is strong in semis, it tilts toward levered long bets (SOXL) while maintaining some hedge protection. - The intent for a layperson: think of this as a cycle-aware “rotation” strategy that tries to buy into semiconductors when the signal says they’re likely to rise, but steps back into hedges or safer assets when volatility or momentum signals worsen. It’s not a simple buy-and-hold; it’s a multi-asset, rule-driven approach designed to adapt to changing market conditions while controlling risk.

Out-of-sample, this cycle-aware semis strategy targets ~42.9% annual return with ~40.7% max drawdown vs the S&P's ~20.6% return and ~18.8% drawdown. Calmar ~1.05, Sharpe ~0.88 - risk-controlled upside with hedges.