A market-timing strategy that shifts among U.S. stocks, tech, bonds, gold, commodities, and defensive assets based on long-term and short-term market trends.

This strategy first checks whether U.S. stocks are in a long-lasting strong period or weak period by comparing long-term trends in the S&P 500. Then it adjusts between stock-heavy, defensive, and crisis positions using shorter-term trend signals and “overbought/oversold” readings (which measure whether prices have risen or fallen unusually fast). It rotates among S&P 500 stocks, technology, Treasury bonds, gold, commodities, consumer staples, and sometimes a fund that benefits when the Nasdaq falls.

Multi-asset market-timing rotates across stocks, bonds, gold and more. Out-of-sample, it cuts drawdowns to ~12% vs ~19% for SPY, with lower beta and solid risk-adjusted return (Calmar ~1.47) for steadier upside.