Sector Rotator (No Leverage)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A mechanical, no-leverage sector-rotation strategy that uses UVXY volatility signals to guard risk and momentum screens to pick the strongest sectors (via XLK, XLF, XLV, XLE, XLB, XTL, XLRE, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLP). It rebalances daily, tends to hold cash when fear is high, and targets the top momentum sector with equal-weight exposure across selected sectors.
- Check market stress using UVXY RSI (10-day lookback). If UVXY RSI is above 80, treat as high risk and avoid heavy equity exposure.
- If not in a high-stress regime, evaluate a universe of sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLV, XLE, XLB, XTL, XLRE, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLP; plus a bond proxy option via TLT in some branches).
- For each sector, apply two momentum tests:
1) Rank sectors by their 200-day moving-average return and pick the top sector (top 1).
2) Require a bullish short-to-medium momentum signal: the sector’s 50-day moving average price must be above its 200-day moving average price.
- If a sector passes, allocate to that sector. If a sector fails, apply a cash-equal rule that blends cash across the eligible sectors instead of loading that sector.
- Build a Sector Rotator (No Leverage) portfolio that rebalances daily across the chosen sectors, using a full cash-equivalent weighting scheme (no borrowings).
- The goal is to ride momentum in the strongest sectors when fear isn’t extreme, while reducing exposure or holding cash when volatility spikes; the design uses familiar sector proxies (XLK, XLF, XLV, etc.) and avoids leverage.
- KMLM is not used in this strategy; the tickers shown are those listed in the rule set for sector exposure.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~1.65 vs SPY ~1.07; Calmar ~2.92; annualized return ~71% vs ~20% for SPY. No leverage, daily rebalancing, UVXY risk-gate, and cash in fear—targeting the strongest sectors for higher risk-adjusted returns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 9, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Sector rotation, momentum, risk management, no leverage, etf-based
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLB
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLF
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLI
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLRE
State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks