Sandy's Modified Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A calmer, rules‑based HFEA: it turns the turbo stock/bond mix on only when fear is low and rates are falling. In panics it hides in short Treasuries; in rising‑rate stress it favors the U.S. dollar and selective hedges. Four staggered triggers reduce whipsaws.
It watches fear (the VIX) and interest‑rate trends.
- Panic: shift to short‑term Treasuries (cash‑like).
- Calm + falling rates: run a turbo mix of U.S. stocks + long Treasuries (the HFEA engine).
- Choppy: step down to milder stock/bond funds or a safety basket (short/mid Treasuries, gold, inflation‑linked bonds).
- Rising rates: hold U.S. dollar funds and sometimes hedges that profit if tech stocks or long bonds fall.
Four staggered triggers smooth timing.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~20% with Calmar ~0.61; four-sleeve, risk-managed approach that hedges rising-rate risk and seeks upside in falling-rate regimes, delivering steadier risk-adjusted exposure than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, trend-following, volatility targeting, crash protection, rates regime, multi-sleeve timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 21 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks