Sandy's Modified AAWP (logic changeup) v2 + V1.1 Kearsarge w/ Dividends - K-1 Free
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A leveraged, multi-asset, K-1 free strategy inspired by All-Weather aims to beat the S&P 500 over the long run by tilting between stocks, bonds, and commodities with hedges, momentum rules, and volatility-based signals. It uses levered and inverse ETFs (e.g., TQQQ, SQQQ, SOXS, UVXY) and a dense set of conditional rules to switch exposures, with daily rebalancing and emphasis on risk control across regimes.
- What it tries to do: build a lifelong, diversified portfolio that aims to profit in most economic environments by holding a mix of stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash-like assets, but with active tilts, leverage, and hedges to enhance returns and reduce risk.
- Core idea: borrow and invest across asset classes to exploit different economic regimes, while using hedges during risk spikes to protect capital. The plan uses levered ETFs and selective short positions to position for momentum and volatility regimes rather than just buy-and-hold.
- How it decides what to own: assets are grouped into major buckets (Equities, Bonds, Commodities, and a “Crash Protection” module). Within each bucket there are multiple sub-choices governed by a large set of rules that look at momentum, price levels, and volatility readings. Signals come from commonly known concepts (momentum, moving averages, standard deviation as a risk gauge, and RSI-like momentum), but they are applied to a wide pool of instruments including familiar big-name ETFs and several highly leveraged or inverse products. When a condition is true, the system will tilt toward certain assets and assign weights that can range widely (e.g., 0% to 100% for a given sub-portfolio or asset) and may replace some positions with hedges.
- Examples of assets used:
- Stocks: SPY (S&P 500), QQQ/TQQQ (Nasdaq 100 and 3x bull), PSQ/SQQQ (3x bear on QQQ), JEPQ (Nasdaq Premium Income ETF) and SPXU (S&P 500 inverse ETF).
- Bonds: various Treasuries and bond funds (TLT, TMF, SHY, SHV, IEF, VGIT, VGLT, TIP, LQD, HYG) including leveraged bond signals.
- Commodities and alternatives: GDX (gold miners), PDBC (diversified commodity strategy), SPY as a stock surrogate in some commodity blocks, FLOT (floating rate bonds), USDU (US dollar bullish ETF).
- Volatility/defensive hedges: UVXY (volatility), VIX-related proxy exposure, and other hedges in “Crash Protection” blocks.
- How risk is managed: the system explicitly toys with hedges when volatility spikes or when momentum indicators warn of an impending downside. There are branches labeled “Crash Protection,” “Huge volatility,” and “Bear Market” that drive exposure toward bearish or hedged instruments. There is also a heavy emphasis on diversification across asset classes and on using balance-sheet-style risk controls (e.g., standard deviation checks, maximum drawdown checks, and cross-asset comparisons like Bond vs. Stock momentum). The framework constantly weighs the risk-vs-reward of each tilt, sometimes steering into 2- or 3-asset groups and at other times into single, heavily weighted positions.
- Practical considerations: leverage magnifies both gains and losses; the approach requires frequent (even daily) rebalancing and careful attention to execution costs and liquidity of used ETFs. The “K-1 Free” attribute means the design relies on ETFs (which typically issue 1099s rather than K-1s) rather than direct partnerships or certain income-generating strategies that would produce K-1s. The complexity implies substantial maintenance and testing is needed to avoid overfitting or excessive turnover. The plan also indicates that, despite its All-Weather framing, it is explicitly designed to perform best over long horizons rather than in a single-year snapshot and assumes access to margin/levered products that carry their own risk and cost considerations.
Out-of-sample results beat the S&P 500: ~34% annualized return vs ~23%; drawdowns ~9% vs ~19%; beta ~0.86; Sharpe ~1.17; Calmar ~3.75—strong, risk-managed upside across regimes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 0.5 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.75% | 15.23% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.92 | |
| 245.61% | 38.9% | -3.2% | -3.32% | 1.52 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$34,560.59Regulatory Fees
$102.99
Total Slippage
$566.58
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 27, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
All weather-inspired, leveraged, cross-asset, long/short, k-1 free
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 38 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
FLOT
iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks