Sandy's Golden Dragon V4.5a (vol hedge? + beta hedge)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A dynamic, multi-asset, regime-aware strategy that blends volatility hedges, beta hedges, momentum-driven commodity/fiat exposure, aggressive/defensive equity tilts, and rate-sensitive bonds to adapt across growth, inflation, and rate environments. It uses rules to tilt toward hedges when risk rises and toward trend/momentum when markets cooperate, with a disciplined but leverage-inclusive approach.
- Overall idea: The strategy spreads bets across several broad “buckets” so it can adapt to different market moods (growth, volatility, inflation/deflation, rising/falling rates) while trying to limit big drawdowns. It uses a set of ETFs to express each bucket’s bets. When market signals shift, it tilts toward or away from those buckets accordingly. Think of it as a Dragon-like mix: calm, steady growth when conditions are positive (serpent) and fast, protective moves when conditions become unsettled (hawk); the combination aims to deliver decent results in many environments.
- The main pockets (modules):
1) Long Volatility (volatility hedges): This module looks for stress/leverage signals and, if triggered, places capital into volatile-index ETFs such as UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures) and VIXM (VIX Mid-Term Futures). The idea is to protect the portfolio when volatility spikes, since those instruments tend to rise when markets get choppy or decline. Signals use short-term momentum measures (a form of RSI on a tech proxy) and price/momentum comparisons against other risk assets.
2) Beta Hedge: A separate hedging sleeve that uses volatility and anti-beta funds (e.g., BTAL) and other hedges when momentum signals suggest risk is rising. The logic uses RSI-like signals (a momentum/trend check) and price/return comparisons to decide whether to tilt toward hedged or neutral positions.
3) Trend and Momentum (COMMO and fiat alternatives): This module explicitly searches for trend in commodities and fiat-like assets. It buys the top two performers from a basket (SPDR S&P 500, gold, dollar index, broad commodities proxy, etc.) over a lookback (about 120 days) using a cumulative-return ranking. The idea is to capture persistent uptrends in assets that often lead broad inflation/real economy trends (commodities and gold) and to hold a small “fiat alternative” sleeve when gold or dollar strength is favorable.
4) Secular Growth Assets: This is the core equities engine. It contains a large set of sub-buckets that switch between aggressive growth tilts (3x levered stock sectors like UPRO in combination with other 3x vehicles) and defensive sleeves (broad market exposure with selective quality/dividend/anti-beta tilts). It uses multi-step decision trees and signals (cumulative return, moving-average indicators, RSI thresholds, and drawdown checks) to decide whether to emphasize 3x equity bets during strong markets or to lean into defensive equities and hedges when regimes deteriorate.
5) Interest Rate Linked/Bonds: A dedicated bond sleeve that shifts among long, intermediate, and leveraged Treasury exposures depending on rate and momentum signals. It includes both traditional 1x exposure (e.g., VGLT, VGIT) and leveraged/short bonds (TMF, TMV, TYD, TYO) to express views on rising or falling rates. The idea is to benefit from the predictable patterns of bonds in different rate environments while maintaining some protection or upside via leverage when appropriate.
6) Core Bonds and Cash: A lower-volatility backbone to provide ballast and additional diversification across the rate cycle; this includes regular bond exposures and careful use of hedges to avoid dragging returns when rates move unfavorably.
- How signals work in plain terms: The strategy relies on simple, mechanical signals such as momentum (how strong a move has been recently), trend (whether asset prices are moving up or down over a window), and relative strength (how one asset compares to another). Examples include 10- or 14-day RSI-style checks (momentum gauges) to determine when hedges should be added or when risk assets should be favored, and lookbacks like 60- or 120-day cumulative returns to rank assets for COMMO and FIAT ALTERNATIVES. It also uses moving-average style checks to see if a price is above or below a short/long-term average, and drawdown or price-ratio considerations to decide between risk-on and risk-off tilts.
- Rebalancing: The design includes a narrow rebalancing corridor (roughly 2%) so weights drift modestly between checks, which can reduce churn but still allow the strategy to respond when regimes shift. The exact rebalance cadence is built into the rules rather than a fixed calendar schedule.
- What you should know about risk: because this strategy uses leveraged ETFs liberally and combines many signals, it aims to participate in upside in strong markets but can experience sizable drawdowns in stressed markets. Leveraged ETFs reset daily, so long-term results depend on market behavior and the effectiveness of hedges. The strategy expects you to review ETF-level risks and understand that leverage magnifies both gains and losses. A careful read of the ETF prospectuses and an awareness of trading costs is advised before investing.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted returns vs the S&P: Sharpe 1.76 vs 1.41, drawdowns 14% vs 19%, annualized return 31.7% vs 22.5%, and lower beta. A hedged, regime-aware blend for resilient growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 347.33% | 13.14% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.8 | |
| 7,749.69% | 43.28% | 0.53% | 3.59% | 2.55 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$784,969.19Regulatory Fees
$1,970.67
Total Slippage
$12,058.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, tactical allocation, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, regime-based, trend following, momentum, macro overlay
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 43 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks