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About
A daily, rule-based, multi-asset strategy that toggles between risk-on and risk-off modes. It picks top leveraged equity bets when momentum is favorable, and top defensive bets when volatility rises, using a layered set of trend, momentum, and volatility signals across stocks, bonds, and commodities.
- Every day, the system evaluates a hierarchy of groups (stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies) and repeatedly tests signals like moving-average trends, cumulative returns, and momentum strength at various lookback windows.
- When momentum and trend conditions are favorable (for example, SPY’s price relative to short- and long-term averages is strong and momentum is high), it selects up to two leveraged equity bets (e.g., SPXL, UDOW, TQQQ) using a top-N rule based on cumulative returns over a short window. Those assets are then weighted to a fixed cash-equivalent allocation within that sub-group.
- When conditions deteriorate (e.g., volatility spikes, relative weakness, or certain risk-off thresholds met), the strategy shifts to risk-off holdings. It then picks top assets from defensive groups (short-term Treasuries, broader bond funds, dollar-hedges, gold, and commodity funds) and allocates to them.
- The approach uses a mix of signals to avoid over-concentration in one theme and to protect against drawdowns in rising-volatility regimes. It also includes alternative flavor variants (Pareto, WAM collections) that emphasize different filters and asset mixes.
- The entire process is rebalance-based (daily), with weights designed to be cash-equivalent within each pick (weight 100/100). The plan is publicly focused on familiar tickers (AAPL, MSFT, SPY, XOM) within the broader ETF universe, plus less-popular funds like SPXL, TQQQ, UDOW, SPXS, BIL, IEF, TMF/TMV, GLD, USDU, PDBC, DBC, and others referenced in the structure.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return 43.46% with Sharpe 1.61 (vs SPY 1.42) and beta ~0.91, Calmar ~1.50. Daily risk-on/risk-off tilts between leveraged equities and defensives deliver stronger risk-adjusted growth than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210.49% | 14.11% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 26,988.28% | 92.06% | -2.95% | 7.5% | 2.46 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,708,827.96Regulatory Fees
$15,588.74
Total Slippage
$99,232.94
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged equity, trend/momentum, volatility-aware
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 88 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Stocks
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Stocks
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
AMGN
Amgen Inc
Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.Com Inc
Stocks
AVGO
Broadcom Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
AXP
American Express Company
Stocks
BA
Boeing Company
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks