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S7 Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Strategy
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily regime-switching system that uses the performance split between a metals/commodity proxy and long Treasuries to label inflation vs. deflation, then rotates into regime-appropriate assets (commodities/selected sectors in inflation, Treasuries/defensives in deflation), with RSI-based momentum and oversold/overbought signals guiding entries/exits and occasional leveraged/inverse exposure.
NutHow it works
- The model watches two big pieces of the market puzzle: metals/commodities (via DBB) and long bonds (via TLT). If metals are doing better than long bonds, the system treats the environment as inflationary. If long bonds lead, it treats it as deflationary. - In inflation mode, it tilts toward assets that often benefit from higher prices (commodity-related ETFs and selected stock sectors). It also uses leveraged or inverse ETFs as hedges or amplifiers when momentum signals indicate risk-off conditions. - In deflation mode, the system shifts toward safer bets: Treasuries, defensive sectors, and sometimes inverse positions. - Momentum signals come mainly from RSI, but the strategy applies these signals across many assets and windows (short, medium, long) to decide entries and exits. It also layers in oversold/overbought checks to time re-entries. - The universe covers a broad set of assets (sector ETFs, commodity proxies, energy, utilities, real estate, bonds, volatility-related funds) to enable diversified regime-appropriate bets. - The daily rebalance means positions are updated every trading day, which allows quick adaptation but increases trading costs and the risk of whipsaws if conditions flip quickly.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample: annualized return 31.6% vs S&P 24.7%; max drawdown 8.38% vs 14.59%; Sharpe about 1.25 vs 1.22; Calmar 3.77; beta about 0.79. Regime-switching, momentum-driven tilt that improves upside with less risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.60.160.020.14
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
405.95%13.49%-1.77%0.2%0.83
224,014.15%82.63%5.05%2.03%3.22
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$22,411,414.52
Regulatory Fees
$141,319.15
Total Slippage
$977,328.03
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, momentum, etfs, inflation/deflation, sector/commodity rotation, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 73 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X ETF
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toXME, EEV, DBA, XLE, SRS, BIS, TMVandUNL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 35.41%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 8.38%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.