S7 Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Strategy
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily regime-switching system that uses the performance split between a metals/commodity proxy and long Treasuries to label inflation vs. deflation, then rotates into regime-appropriate assets (commodities/selected sectors in inflation, Treasuries/defensives in deflation), with RSI-based momentum and oversold/overbought signals guiding entries/exits and occasional leveraged/inverse exposure.
- The model watches two big pieces of the market puzzle: metals/commodities (via DBB) and long bonds (via TLT). If metals are doing better than long bonds, the system treats the environment as inflationary. If long bonds lead, it treats it as deflationary.
- In inflation mode, it tilts toward assets that often benefit from higher prices (commodity-related ETFs and selected stock sectors). It also uses leveraged or inverse ETFs as hedges or amplifiers when momentum signals indicate risk-off conditions.
- In deflation mode, the system shifts toward safer bets: Treasuries, defensive sectors, and sometimes inverse positions.
- Momentum signals come mainly from RSI, but the strategy applies these signals across many assets and windows (short, medium, long) to decide entries and exits. It also layers in oversold/overbought checks to time re-entries.
- The universe covers a broad set of assets (sector ETFs, commodity proxies, energy, utilities, real estate, bonds, volatility-related funds) to enable diversified regime-appropriate bets.
- The daily rebalance means positions are updated every trading day, which allows quick adaptation but increases trading costs and the risk of whipsaws if conditions flip quickly.
Out-of-sample: annualized return 31.6% vs S&P 24.7%; max drawdown 8.38% vs 14.59%; Sharpe about 1.25 vs 1.22; Calmar 3.77; beta about 0.79. Regime-switching, momentum-driven tilt that improves upside with less risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, momentum, etfs, inflation/deflation, sector/commodity rotation, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 73 assets in total
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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
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DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
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DBC
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DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
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DUST
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