S7 Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Strategy
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based strategy that flips between inflation and deflation using metals vs Treasuries. It tilts to commodities/cyclicals in inflation and to Treasuries/defensives in deflation, adding tactical hedges when markets look too hot or too cold. Rebalances daily.
1) Decide the backdrop: compare a metals fund (DBB) to long US Treasuries (TLT). If metals lead → inflation; if Treasuries lead → deflation.
2) Check risk tone using simple leaders: cyclical vs defensive stocks, real estate vs commodities, and SPY vs a low‑vol version (SPLV).
3) Buy what fits: in inflation, more commodities and cyclical tech/industrials; in deflation, more Treasuries, utilities, and some gold. When prices look too hot or too cold (a speedometer‑like signal), it adds hedges. Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy returns 31.6%/yr vs SPY 24.7%, with lower max drawdown (8.38% vs 14.59%), better Calmar (~3.77) and Sharpe (~1.25), and a beta near 0.79, offering higher upside with less market risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 416.77% | 13.72% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.84 | |
| 217,405.03% | 82.5% | 2.64% | -1.72% | 3.22 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$21,750,502.58Regulatory Fees
$140,765.20
Total Slippage
$973,492.73
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, etfs, inflation/deflation, sectors & commodities & bonds, rsi timing, volatility hedges, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 73 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks