S7 Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Strategy
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules-based strategy that labels markets as inflationary or deflationary (metals vs Treasuries), then rotates among sectors/commodities and adds hedges when prices look stretched. Uses some leveraged/inverse funds; trading is frequent.
1) Decide the backdrop: Are industrial metals (DBB) beating long US Treasury bonds (TLT)? If yes = inflationary; if no = deflationary.
2) Judge market mood by comparing real estate vs commodities and materials vs utilities, plus quick “overbought/oversold” checks (has price run up or down too fast?).
3) In inflationary, tilt to energy, metals, agriculture and some growth; in deflationary, tilt to long Treasuries, utilities, gold, and housing. When mood turns cautious, add hedges (inverse or 2–3x funds, volatility).
Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample: ~31.6% annualized return vs SPY 24.7%; Calmar ~3.77; max drawdown ~8.38% vs 14.59%; Sharpe ~1.25 vs 1.22; beta ~0.79. Regime-switching, hedged, multi-asset strategy offering higher growth with notably lower drawdowns than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 420.01% | 13.81% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.85 | |
| 216,672.32% | 82.73% | 0.69% | 2.73% | 3.23 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$21,677,232.29Regulatory Fees
$139,637.24
Total Slippage
$965,612.42
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, tactical allocation, inflation/deflation, multi-asset, daily rebalancing, overbought/oversold signals, hedged, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 73 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
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BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
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BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
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CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks