S10 Hedged Sector Rotator
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A 60/40, rules-based strategy that rotates into the strongest stock sectors (via sector ETFs) while a hedge sleeve (40%) uses Treasuries, volatility, and short-SPY signals to reduce risk; it rebalances daily and blends momentum with risk-management signals.
- Daily, split the portfolio 60/40 between two sleeves: Sector Rotator (60%) and Hedge System (40%).
- Sector Rotator (60%): scans major stock sectors using sector ETFs (for example XLK for Technology, XLF for Financials, XLV Health Care, XLE Energy, XLB Materials, XLY Consumer Discretionary, XLI Industrials, XLU Utilities, XLP Consumer Staples, XTL Telecom). Within that universe, it ranks candidates by long-term performance (roughly a 200-day horizon) and selects the top performer to carry the 60% exposure. In practice, you’ll see allocations to common sector vehicles like XLK and, in some cases, TECL (a leveraged Tech ETF) as the sector exposure. Some layers also consider SVXY as part of the selection pool, reflecting a volatility-conscious tilt.
- Decision rules in Sector Rotator often revolve around moving-average performance and momentum signals, with occasional use of RSI (relative strength index) checks to gauge overbought conditions for specific components; if RSI on the focal sector hits extreme levels (e.g., above 80), the system leans toward hedging rather than adding more risk exposure.
- Hedge System (40%): a separate sleeve designed to mitigate risk and attempt to profit from market stress. It includes sub-strategies like:
- TMF Momentum: uses treasury-bond-related ETFs (TMF, TMV, TLT, SHV, BND) with momentum and relative-strength rules to determine when to allocate to Treasuries (risk-off) vs. staying in equities.
- SVXY FTLT: volatility-oriented hedges using SVXY and related indicators to tilt toward hedges when volatility signals are elevated.
- TINA (There Is No Alternative) style layering: a set of conditions that combine equity hedges (e.g., short QQQ via PSQ, SPY-related signals) with bond/volatility hedges to dampen drawdowns.
- Short SPY logic: occasional tilted exposure toward short SPY (i.e., market-neutral or bear-leaning steps) when momentum signals suggest risk-off.
- The whole system rebalances daily, with the Hedge System potentially reducing equity risk quickly if volatility or momentum signals indicate trouble, and Sector Rotator attempting to maintain exposure to the best-performing sectors.
- The end result is a blended portfolio that aims to ride the strength of leadership sectors most of the time, but switch into hedges to limit losses during adverse conditions. This is a fairly complex, relatively high-turnover model using a mix of sector ETFs, leveraged equities, volatility hedges, and Treasury/bond hedges.
- Important caveats: levered ETFs (like TECL) amplify both gains and losses; the model relies on somewhat multiple moving parts and daily rebalancing, which can increase turnover and transaction costs; past performance signals do not guarantee future results; this is a sophisticated, risk-aware approach best understood in a simulated setting before live deployment.
Out-of-sample edge: ~83% annualized return vs ~21% for the S&P, Sharpe ~2.16 vs ~1.18, and Calmar ~4.36. It targets sector leadership with hedges to boost risk-adjusted gains while keeping downside manageable.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | 1.04 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141.87% | 14.91% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 26,203.95% | 140.26% | 0.44% | 11.57% | 2.48 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,630,394.69Regulatory Fees
$9,612.69
Total Slippage
$60,974.99
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Sector rotation, hedging, momentum, volatility, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 40 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DUSL
Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
LTL
ProShares Ultra Communication Services
Stocks