RSI 2 TMF
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily strategy around long‑term Treasuries: stay long TMF when it’s trending up, flip to TMV when TMF looks overheated, and if TMF isn’t in an uptrend, either short it on spikes or sit in a SPY/GLD mix weighted by recent stability.
Every day it looks at TMF, a 3x fund tied to long‑term U.S. Treasury bonds. RSI(2) is a 2‑day “hot/cold” score from 0–100; a 100‑day moving average is a simple trendline.
- If TMF is above its 100‑day trend: usually hold TMF; but if RSI>90, briefly switch to TMV (the 3x short version).
- If TMF is below trend: if RSI>90, hold TMV; otherwise hold SPY (big U.S. stocks) and GLD (gold) with more weight on the steadier one (past 30‑day).
Out-of-sample: ~21% annualized return vs SPY ~17%, with higher risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe ~1.0, Calmar ~1.59) and smaller drawdowns (13.3% vs 18.8%). Positive alpha and low beta offer upside with downside protection vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$281,921.34Regulatory Fees
$2,651.09
Total Slippage
$17,056.94
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, treasuries focus, rsi mean‑reversion, 100‑day trend filter, leveraged etfs, spy/gld hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks