A rules-based rotating portfolio that sits in SPY when the market looks healthy, shifts to defensive assets when signals weaken, and tilts into the strongest momentum sectors (tech, financials, energy, utilities) plus a macro bond tilt for risk management. It uses simple trend and momentum signals with equal-weight allocations inside active pockets.

What is happening in simple terms: - Moving averages: A moving-average line smooths price over time. If the price is above this line, the market trend is considered up; below it, the trend may be down. The system uses price vs. a long moving-average (like 200 days) to decide if stocks should stay in SPY or move to defense. - Momentum and RSI basics: Momentum measures how strong recent moves are. RSI is a relative-strength gauge showing whether an asset has recently moved up or down too far, too quickly. The strategy uses short-term momentum signals to tilt toward sector ETFs when signals look favorable. - Core vs. defense: SPY is the core exposure when conditions are favorable. When conditions aren’t favorable, the defense sleeve kicks in with safer assets (BIL, gold, staples) to lower risk. - Sector rotation: If a sector ETF (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLU) shows positive momentum on short vs longer-term signals, that sector gets exposure; otherwise it stays out. Exposure across sectors is allocated evenly among currently active sectors. - Macro tilt: There is a macro-tilt sleeve using TLT to capture long-duration-bond dynamics for risk management during larger market shifts. - Rebalancing: The system trades only when signals move meaningfully, to avoid over-trading; inside each active sleeve, assets are weighted evenly. - Real-world ticker roles: SPY is the broad-market ETF; XLK, XLF, XLE, XLU represent technology, financials, energy, and utilities sectors; BIL is a cash-like safe asset; GLD is gold; XLP is consumer staples; TLT is long-term Treasuries.

Out-of-sample, this rotating strategy beats SPY on risk-adjusted return: Sharpe 1.32 vs 1.14, annualized return 22.86% vs 20.27%, and drawdown 12.25% vs 18.76%, with a higher Calmar ratio and lower beta. More upside, less risk.