A rule-based rotation strategy focused on QQQ leadership with sector momentum bets and a defensive cushion, using ETFs to time allocations between growth, sector bets, and bonds while avoiding frequent tinkering.

- Core tilt to QQQ: The strategy looks at QQQ relative to a long-term benchmark (SPY’s 200-day price) and also checks short-term momentum on QQQ (RSI with a 10-day window). If QQQ looks stronger than the benchmark and its RSI isn’t oversold (RSI > 30), it leans toward a “Super QQQ” exposure. - Defensive cushion: If the QQQ conditions aren’t favorable, the system can shift into defensive assets like BIL (short-term Treasuries), XLP (consumer staples) and GLD (gold) with a tilt that reflects inverse volatility considerations (risk-reduction rules). - Sector momentum sleeves: There are separate sleeves for XLF (Financials), XLK (Technology), XLE (Energy), and XLU (Utilities). Each sector uses a quick momentum test (a short-term EMA crossing above a longer-term MA). If the sector’s momentum rule is met, the sleeve gets a fixed allocation (around a modest weight, typically in the mid-teens). This creates a diversified set of sector bets that can ride broader trends beyond QQQ. - Macro momentum arm: There is also a bond/macro leg (TLT) that uses longer-horizon momentum signals (and sometimes RSI-based checks) to decide whether to include bonds in the mix. This provides a counterbalance to equity exposure when bond momentum supports a more defensive posture. - Weighting and rebalancing: Exposures are combined into a single portfolio with defined weights (core QQQ tilt plus sector and macro sleeves, plus defense). Rebalancing isn’t on a fixed daily schedule; changes occur when the signals cross defined thresholds (a small corridor of signal strength to avoid frequent whipsaws). - What you actually own: You’re trading a basket of commonly traded ETFs: QQQ (Nasdaq-100 tracking), SPY (S&P 500 tracking), BIL (short-term Treasuries), XLK, XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP (sector ETFs), GLD (gold), and TLT (long-duration Treasuries). The system combines these to try to ride leadership while damping risk in tougher markets.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~1.26 vs ~1.14, annualized return ~23.9% vs ~20.3%, and drawdown ~15.4% vs ~18.8%. Higher risk-adjusted growth with lower downside, plus diversified sector/bond exposure.