Monthly, 50/50 split between a momentum/value-oriented US equity ETF (chosen from a fixed list) and a short-term Treasuries ETF; the equity sleeve is selected only if its price is above its 1-year average and it outperformed cash over the last year. If none pass, the cascade defaults to the next candidate, still keeping a balanced 50/50 with cash.

- Each month, the strategy rebalances to two assets: a chosen equity ETF and a short-term Treasuries ETF (BIL), each at 50%. - It doesn’t try to buy the whole market at once. Instead, it scans a fixed list of equity ETFs in a predefined order to find one that meets two tests. - For every candidate ETF, it checks two conditions in order: 1) Is the current price above its own 1-year moving average? (This asks: is the asset in an uptrend versus its own history?) 2) Has the ETF outperformed cash over the last 12 months, i.e., does its 365-day cumulative return exceed that of BIL? - If a candidate passes both tests, you allocate 50% to that ETF and 50% to BIL. If the candidate fails, you move to the next ETF on the list and test it the same way. - The process continues until a candidate passes, or the list is exhausted. In that case, you revert to the base two-asset 50/50 structure with the best available candidate per the cascade. - The ETFs in the list cover different market exposures: MTUM (momentum-focused US stocks), IWD (value tilt in US stocks), EFA (international developed markets), EFV (international value), VNQ (US real estate), DBC (commodities), IEF (US long-term Treasuries), and BIL (short-term Treasuries used as cash proxy). - Why 50/50 with BIL? It keeps risk modest by pairing potential equity upside with a very stable, short-duration bond- or cash-like asset, reducing drawdowns during weak equity periods. - The lookback window (365 days) means the tests rely on the past year’s price action, so a new regime might take some time to reflect in the signals. The approach is “robust” in the sense that it uses multiple tests and a cascade to avoid overreacting to a single indicator. - In practice, if you wanted to use a different cash proxy (e.g., a differently liquid ETF) or swap KMLM into the equity list, you could adjust the candidate list and keep the same two-test logic and 50/50 pairing.

Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted performance vs the S&P 500: Sharpe 1.71 vs 1.41, lower drawdown 9.7% vs 13.7%, and Calmar 2.17, aided by a disciplined 50/50 equity-cash mix that dampens volatility while preserving upside.