Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1) v1.1
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A K‑1‑free, rules-based spin on HFEA. It goes risk‑on with leveraged stocks/bonds when rates are friendly, and flips to cash-like Treasuries, USD, gold, or inverse hedges when fear spikes, rates rise, or after sharp drops.
Panic check: if a “fear index” ETF (VIXM) is jumping (high RSI = fast rise), park in short‑term Treasuries (SHY).
If not, rates test: if broad bonds (BND) beat cash, go risk‑on and put ~2/3 in leveraged tech/Nasdaq/S&P/long‑bond funds that look coolest short‑term (low RSI).
If long bonds lag cash (rising rates), hold US dollar (USDU) + one hedge (SQQQ or TBF).
If rates are falling and no sharp 10‑day drop, run 55% UPRO/45% TMF; else hold IEI, TIP, BSV, GLD.
Out-of-sample edge: ~22.7% annualized return vs 22.0% for the S&P, with built-in risk-off hedges (treasuries, USD, gold, inverse hedges) and selective leverage in favorable markets. K‑1‑free, rules-based, diversified, aims for steadier compounding.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Rules-based, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged equities, treasuries, gold, usd, hedging, crash-protection, no k-1, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks