Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A tactical, no‑K‑1, risk‑on/risk‑off take on HFEA: filters out crashes via a fear spike, uses rate trends to toggle between leveraged stocks/bonds in good times and USD/hedges in bad times, and falls back to Treasuries or a safe mix when needed.
• If the fear index (VIX) spikes, move 100% to short‑term Treasuries (SHY).
• Else read rates:
– If broad bonds beat T‑bills, put ~68% into three 3x funds (tech/Nasdaq/S&P or long Treasuries) that look most oversold (a short‑term weakness score); keep ~32% cash.
– If long Treasuries lag T‑bills, go defensive: mainly long U.S. dollar plus one short ETF (stocks or bonds).
– Otherwise (rates falling), use HFEA: ~55% 3x S&P 500 (UPRO) + ~45% 3x long Treasuries (TMF); if a sharp drop hits, shift to safer bonds and gold.
Outperforms the S&P 500 in out-of-sample history: ~26% annualized vs ~23%. Dynamic rate-driven risk-on/off with crash protection, cash buffer, no K-1, tax-friendly 1099. Higher upside, but be mindful of larger drawdowns in crises.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 4, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility & momentum, rate-regime switching, crash protection, no k‑1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks