Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A rules-based, risk-on/risk-off take on HFEA that avoids K‑1 ETFs. It sidesteps crashes, reads the interest‑rate backdrop via bonds vs cash, runs a 55/45 leveraged stock/bond core in falling-rate/calm markets, and shifts to USD/hedges or safe bonds/gold in stress.
1) Crash check: if the fear gauge (VIXM) runs hot (RSI>69; think RSI = short‑term “heat”), go 100% SHY (short‑term Treasuries).
2) Read rates via bonds vs cash:
- If BND>BIL: risk‑on—tilt to triple‑speed US stocks/tech and long Treasuries (TECL/TQQQ/UPRO/TMF), preferring those just knocked down (low 10‑day RSI).
- Else: if TLT<BIL (rising rates) hold USDU + a hedge (QID or TBF). If TLT≥BIL (falling rates) run HFEA (~55% UPRO, 45% TMF) unless SPY just fell; then use IEI/BSV/TIP/GLD.
Out-of-sample annualized return ≈26% vs SPY ≈23%, with crash protection and rate-driven tilts; higher max drawdown ≈55% vs ≈19%, but greater upside and adaptive risk controls not found in the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 4, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, interest-rate regime, crash protection, bond/gold defensives
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks