Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
Runs a Hedgefundie-style 55/45 only when rates are falling and markets are calm; otherwise shifts to Treasuries, USD, gold, or inverse hedges. Crash spikes send it to short-term Treasuries. Rules-based, uses RSI/return checks. No K‑1.
1) If market panic: when a volatility fund (VIXM) shows a very “hot” 40‑day reading (RSI), go 100% SHY (very short US Treasuries).
2) Else pick the rate regime: if broad bonds (BND) beat T‑Bills (BIL) over 60 days, put ~68% into three of TECL/TQQQ/UPRO/TMF that look least overheated short‑term (by RSI); rest in cash.
3) Else if long Treasuries (TLT) lag T‑Bills over 20 days, go defensive: ~88% into a single hedge (QID = inverse Nasdaq or TBF = inverse long Treasuries, whichever is weaker), plus ~12% in USDU (long US dollar).
4) Else (falling rates): if the S&P 500 hasn’t dropped >5% in the last 10 days, run HFEA (55% UPRO + 45% TMF). If it has, use a safety mix: IEI, GLD, TIP, BSV. No K‑1 funds.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets about 28.5% annualized return vs SPY’s ~23%, with regime-driven hedges designed to capture growth in calm, falling-rate markets and protect during spikes. Higher upside, but larger drawdown risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | 1.25 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 369.91% | 13.7% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.83 | |
| 31,930.44% | 61.37% | -3.71% | 5.25% | 1.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,203,043.73Regulatory Fees
$10,986.85
Total Slippage
$69,650.28
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 4, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk on/off, leveraged etfs, volatility filter, rate regime, crash protection, momentum/rsi, inverse hedges, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks