Risk On or Risk Off Leveraged S&P 500 / NASDAQ | 59.7% AR | 28.3% DD | 2011-22 | HinnomTX mod
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Quarterly, it lets bonds call the shots: if bonds beat cash, lean into 3x S&P/NASDAQ (picking the cooler ones). If not, hold dollar + shorts when rates rise, or gold/long Treasuries/defensive stocks when rates fall.
Every quarter it asks: did bonds beat cash over 60 days? If yes → Risk ON: put ~68% into 3x stock funds tied to the S&P 500/NASDAQ (e.g., TQQQ/UPRO/TECL; sometimes TMF), picking the 3 with the coolest 10‑day RSI (a short‑term heat score; lower=cooler).
If no → Risk OFF. Then: if long Treasuries lag cash over 20 days (rates rising), favor the US dollar (UUP) plus either a fund that profits when NASDAQ falls (QID) or when long Treasuries fall (TBF), whichever has the lower 20‑day RSI. If Treasuries lead (rates falling), hold gold (UGL), long Treasuries (TMF), anti‑beta (BTAL), and staples (XLP).
Out-of-sample annualized return 32.4% vs 23.0% for the S&P, due to quarterly risk-on/off rotations aiming for higher growth in favorable rate regimes. Diversified hedges reduce downside—but drawdowns can be larger (≈42%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | 0.66 | 0.1 | 0.31 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 653.72% | 15.01% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 41,435.51% | 51.82% | -0.05% | -2.67% | 1.33 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,153,550.52Regulatory Fees
$1,183.00
Total Slippage
$7,510.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 2, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical risk-on/off, trend following, leveraged us equity, treasuries, gold, us dollar, defensive rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks