A slow-moving market-timing strategy that uses the bond market as a warning signal: when conditions look healthy it buys aggressive leveraged stock funds; when conditions worsen it moves into defensive assets.

Every quarter, the strategy asks: are bonds acting healthy, or is cash doing better? If bonds are stronger than cash, it goes into “risk-on” mode and buys aggressive funds tied to big U.S. stocks and tech, plus sometimes long-term Treasury bonds. If cash is stronger, it switches to defense. If interest rates seem to be rising, it leans toward the U.S. dollar and positions that can benefit from falling tech or bond prices. If rates seem to be falling, it spreads money across gold, long Treasury bonds, defensive stocks, and a hedged low-volatility fund.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher upside (23.8% vs SPY 21.7%), with solid risk control (Calmar ~0.57). It uses bond strength to switch between risk-on and defense, delivering diversification—though drawdowns can be larger in stress.