Risk On or Risk Off Leveraged S&P 500 / NASDAQ | 59.7% AR | 28.3% DD | 2011-22 | HinnomTX mod
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A rules-based risk-on/risk-off plan: when bonds look healthy, it leans into leveraged stock funds; when they don’t, it shifts to USD, Treasuries, gold, defensive stocks, or inverse hedges. Rebalanced quarterly; trades only a few times a year.
Each quarter it asks: are bonds (BND) beating T‑bills (BIL) over ~60 days? If yes (risk‑ON), own three of {TECL=3x tech, TQQQ=3x Nasdaq‑100, UPRO=3x S&P 500, TMF=3x long Treasuries}, dropping the one that looks hottest by a short‑term “heat meter” (RSI). If no (risk‑OFF): if long Treasuries (TLT) trail T‑bills (rates rising), hold UUP (strong USD) and mostly one hedge: QID (inverse Nasdaq) or TBF (short long Treasuries). Otherwise (rates falling), hold UGL (2x gold), TMF, BTAL (low‑vol vs high‑vol), XLP. Trades few times/yr.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher growth (34% vs SPY’s 23%) with a disciplined risk-on/off framework that shifts to leveraged equities or hedges as bonds signal strength. Diversified with Calmar ~0.81.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.1 | 0.31 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 660.9% | 15.23% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.92 | |
| 40,751.89% | 52.19% | -0.5% | -1.66% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,085,189.02Regulatory Fees
$1,183.00
Total Slippage
$7,510.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 2, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, trend following, leveraged etfs, equities, treasuries, gold, usd, defensive, inverse hedges, quarterly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks