Risk On or Risk Off Leveraged S&P 500 / NASDAQ | 59.7% AR | 28.3% DD | 2011-22 | HinnomTX mod
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, risk-on/risk-off ETF rotation. Uses bond vs T‑bill strength to time leveraged tech/Nasdaq/S&P in good times, and switch to USD, gold, Treasuries, low‑volatility and staples when shaky. Quarterly checks; typically few trades per year.
Quarterly process:
1) If broad bonds beat T‑bills over ~2 months: Risk‑On. Put most money in leveraged stock funds tied to tech/Nasdaq/S&P, picked by a short‑term strength score; keep a small cash buffer.
2) Otherwise: Risk‑Off. If long Treasuries trail T‑bills over ~1 month (rates rising), hold the U.S. dollar and either short Nasdaq or short long Treasuries. If not (rates falling), hold gold, long Treasuries, a low‑volatility fund, and consumer staples.
Out-of-sample edge: 32.4% annualized return vs SPY’s 23%, with positive alpha and solid risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ≈0.78, Sharpe ≈0.89). Bond-driven regime timing uses leveraged tech exposure plus hedges to seek higher upside with disciplined risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.31 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 637.94% | 14.81% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.9 | |
| 42,156.53% | 51.84% | 1.1% | 6.24% | 1.33 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,225,652.80Regulatory Fees
$1,183.00
Total Slippage
$7,510.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 2, 2022
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, multi-asset, trend-based, defensive hedging, tech/growth, treasuries, usd, gold, consumer staples
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks