Rising Rates with Vol Switch | KYLE MOD + Jefe
Today’s Change (Aug 23, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules‑based rotation for rising‑rate times: own leveraged stock sectors when Nasdaq/Treasuries are calm; flip to crash/defensive hedges (UVXY, SQQQ, TMV, DBMF) when stress hits. Uses RSI “heat” checks and volatility‑based sizing. High risk.
It watches two markets: QQQ (Nasdaq‑100) and long bonds (TMF). RSI is a short‑term “heat meter” (0–100).
- If QQQ is very hot (>79), it buys UVXY (a volatility spike hedge).
- If QQQ is very cold (<32), it buys the more beaten‑down of TQQQ (3x Nasdaq bull) or BSV (short‑term bonds).
- If QQQ just fell a lot, it shifts to SQQQ (3x Nasdaq bear) or DBMF (managed‑futures diversifier).
- If long bonds crack, it uses TMV (3x short bonds) or DBMF.
- Otherwise, it holds a low‑vol‑weighted mix of 3x stock‑sector funds (e.g., financials, healthcare, semis, biotech), plus TMF. Rebalanced daily. High risk due to leverage.
Out-of-sample: 42.57% annualized return vs 20.91% for the S&P, Calmar ~0.85. A rules-based, volatility-aware rotation that captures higher upside in rising-rate regimes while hedging risk during stress, unlike a pure index.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 194.29% | 16.24% | 2.33% | 3.36% | 0.86 | |
| 96,265.14% | 160.56% | 7.99% | -6.52% | 2.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$9,636,513.68Regulatory Fees
$30,557.38
Total Slippage
$274,213.98
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 5, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, volatility switch, rising-rates hedging, managed futures, leveraged etfs, daily rebalancing, momentum/mean-reversion