Retirement - Sector Reversion & Beta Flipping (Quarterly)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A quarterly, rule-based mix of sector mean-reversion, global sector/treasury rotation, diversifiers (futures and gold), and selective leverage. It seeks steady retirement-friendly growth by buying recent underperformers, adding ballast with diversifiers, and using leverage to boost potential gains, all within a diversified framework.
- The strategy rebalance happens quarterly, restructuring a mix of assets to target a retirement-friendly growth path with controlled risk.
- It looks for underperformance (mean reversion) within different groups of assets over specific windows and then tilts exposure toward those underperformers, betting they’ll rebound.
- Domestic sector mean reversion and Global Sector + Treasury mean reversion are the core engines. They scan baskets of sector ETFs (e.g., VDE for energy, VNQ for real estate, VHT for health care, VGT for tech, etc.) and a few Treasury ETFs (IEF, EDV) and pick the weakest performers over lookback windows (63 days for domestic sectors; 10–20–20–63 day windows in different blocks).
- The selected assets are then allocated with a weighted approach (often about 80/100 in the chosen set) to emphasize the underperformers while spreading risk across several sectors and a mix of bond exposure.
- Diversifiers layer adds non-equity protection: Simplify Managed Futures (CTA), KMLM (a managed futures index ETF), and GLD (gold) with a 30-day lookback, helping smooth volatility and provide ballast when equity rotations go awry.
- Leverage sleeve magnifies exposure to market moves through instruments like UPRO (3x S&P 500), BTAL (anti-beta to dampen beta-driven risk), ZROZ (long-duration duration proxy), and targeted two-times bets on Health (CURE, VHT) and Tech (TECL, VGT).
- The Dynamic Weighting block blends these components with rules that pick the bottom performers over a 30- or 20-day horizon and determine how heavily to weight each sleeve (e.g., Diversifiers at 18%, Leverage at 34%, Dynamic Weighting itself at 12%, and Sector Reversion components at the rest).
- The combined portfolio aims for diversified sources of return: mean reversion in domestic/global sectors, tail-hedging/diversification from futures and gold, and amplified upside from selected levered bets, all while maintaining quarterly rebalancing to keep risk in check.
- It is built around ETFs and index funds, so liquidity is generally strong, but levered and futures-like pieces add complexity and risk that must be managed, especially in volatile or trending markets.
Out-of-sample: ~32.6% annualized return vs S&P ~30.7%, Calmar ~1.47, and diversified ballast (futures, gold) with leverage. Quarterly rotations target retirement-friendly growth; expect higher drawdowns (~22%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.01 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 0.94 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.72% | 16.58% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.98 | |
| 100.49% | 19.96% | -2.28% | 2.26% | 0.96 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$20,049.04Regulatory Fees
$3.09
Total Slippage
$20.35
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 12, 2025
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, sector rotation, managed futures, leveraged/anti-beta, diversification, retirement-focused
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 32 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
EDV
Vanguard World Funds Extended Duration ETF
Stocks
EXI
iShares Global Industrials ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy ETF
Stocks
IXG
iShares Global Financials ETF
Stocks
IXJ
iShares Global Healthcare ETF
Stocks