Retail with Recession Condition
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Owns Walmart, Costco, and a little Target. If the broad market looks weak by a simple average‑price test on the S&P 500, it shifts to all Walmart; otherwise it keeps a fixed Walmart‑heavy retail mix. Rebalances daily.
Each day it checks the overall market (the S&P 500 via SPY) by comparing the recent 50‑day average price to the 200‑day average.
If the short‑term average is below the long‑term one (market looks weak), it holds 100% Walmart.
Otherwise it holds ~61.6% Walmart, ~34.9% Costco, ~3.5% Target. Rebalances daily.
Defensive, trend-driven retail strategy: pivots to Walmart in weak markets, and to Walmart/Costco/Target in strength. Out-of-sample: ~15.36% annualized return, Calmar 2.14, low beta (~0.08) for diversification vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,515.39% | 10.64% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.63 | |
| 9,404.46% | 15.16% | -1.64% | 9.2% | 0.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$950,445.82Regulatory Fees
$222.12
Total Slippage
$840.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, us retail, trend filter, tactical, consumer staples/discretionary, concentrated, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TGT
Target Corporation
Stocks
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
Stocks